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TheUnknownFan
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daddyact
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TheUnknownFan said...
No, Nebraska is not being overlooked.
The formula for pre-season rankings is as old as dirt:
*How good we're you last year? *Did you finish strong? *How many starters do you return? (with some emphasis in skill positions) *What's your schedule look like?
Based on these factors, Nebraska is being pegged right where they should be.
As with the national pre-season polls, there is no accounting for the potential of returning players to improve greatly over the previous year. There's no consideration for potentially high impact newcomers, nor is there any factor for teams being better acclimated to their offensive and defensive systems. These factors can have a huge impact on how the season goes, but when it comes to pre-season predictions they are not part of the formula.
It's pretty much status quo.
Now every year, there seems to be a handful of teams who take it up a notch or two from where they had been pegged, and you hope the Huskers are one of those teams in 2012.
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daddyact said...
I know what you said, and my answer stands. MSU does not have as much or more coming back this year than Nebraska.
On offense alone, the Spartans lose their starting QB, their starting Fullback, their three best Wide Receivers, both Tight Ends, and a starting Left Guard. They return all of five returning starters on offense.
Nebraska lost a starting WR and their Fullback, and return nine starters from last season.
On Defense, MSU lost two DL and their Free Safety. Yes, they return eight starters, but that defense wasn't all that great, unless you think giving up 39 points to Wisconsin in the CCG is the mark of a great defense.
Nebraska returns EIGHT starters from the end of last season, which is exactly how much MSU returns.
So tell me again how Michigan State returns as much or more than the Huskers.
nustudent
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daddyact said...
Using that criteria, the fact that MSU is considered the challenger for Michigan tells me flat out that Nebraska IS being overlooked.
Especially since the Huskers shut down the Spartan offense last year.
Sparty is not going to the CCG this year, unless the offensive skill replacements are actually better than the seven top skill players from last year. MSU will do well to avoid losing four conference games.
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nustudent said...
When you have our numbers wrong...then yes..you can make the argument that we return more than they do.
We don't return 9 starters on offense. We return 6. You can't leave out the 3 OL we lost (Hardrick, Jones, Caputo). We have 6 coming back compared to the 5 you say they have. Advantage us by 1.
On defense we lost 4 starters (Moore, David, Dennard, Cassidy) so we only have 7 coming back as opposed to the 8 you say they have. Advantage MSU by 1.
That means they have as much returning as we do, from a team that finished with a better record overall and better record in the conference.
I never said their defense was great, but it was better than ours and they have more coming back from it.
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TheUnknownFan said...
Apparently, you didn't crunch the numbers for MSU...
*How good were you last year? Finished 11-3 and in the Top Ten. Better than Nebraska *Did you finish strong? Won 5 of last 6 games including bowl win over Georgia. Only loss was by 3 to Wiscy in B1G CCG. Better than Nebraska *How many starters do you return? 14, 5 on offense, 9 on defense. Close call, edge Nebraska *What's your schedule look like? Plays divisional opponents Iowa, Nebraska, and Northwestern at home. Ohio State at home as well. Better than Nebraska.
Out of the 4 criteria I named, only returning starters would favor Nebraska, and that's probably arguable.
Hence, MSU is predicted to to better than Nebraska.
This post was edited by daddyact on 7/27/2012 at 5:20 PM
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daddyact said...
You count it your way and I'll count it mine. i was responding to a post that stated that MSU returns more totheir team this year than Nebraska does, and that's not only incorrect, it's a blatant lie.
You can't lose nine critical players on offense and expect to be improved the following season.
This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by Trash Angel on 7/27/2012 at 7:29 PM
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Trash Angel ●
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Trash Angel said...
If you don't have the facts argue the...
If we are so dominant why did Michigan & Wisconsin blow our doors off? Northwestern? At home...
We will contend but this isn't a formality.
Your constant condescending b.s. is played out.
This post was edited by daddyact on 7/27/2012 at 8:06 PM
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daddyact said...
We lost one skill player, period. That alone puts us about five up on MSU. that, plus the fact that we actually return four former starters in the OL; ARod, Choi, Long, and Sirles, not to mention Moore, who will be no worse than Hardrick was last year.
If you're going to nitpick, let's do it honestly. Nebraska is a far more talented team on offense this season than MSU, and we aren't replacing our QB and our entire corps of receivers.
If you're going to call me out for miscounting, get that right as well. Actually, I did miscount. MSU also loses their starting LT from last season, so they're replacing just as many OL as we are. Four total returning on offense then.
Rome finished the season, and is the returning starter, at DT. We lost David, Dennard, and Cassidy, as I said.
I can count. MSU: 4 + 8 = 12. NU: 8 + 8 = 16
Have you forgotten that this same defense shut down MSU last year, or that we scored 24 on their oh so terrific defense? Apparently so.
One game better overall, AND a loser to the Huskers.
No matter how you want to slice it, Nebraska is returning more and better than the Spartans.
This post has been edited 3 times, most recently by nustudent on 7/27/2012 at 8:46 PM
nustudent
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daddyact said...
You count it your way and I'll count it mine. i was responding to a post that stated that MSU returns more totheir team this year than Nebraska does, and that's not only incorrect, it's a blatant lie.
You can't lose nine critical players on offense and expect to be improved the following season.
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nustudent said...
Rome did not finish the season as the starter. He started all of 2 games. Moore started the final 5.
You are being pretty leniant in our favor in what you consider a returning starter. If you are going to consider ARod, Rome and Sirles returning starters, we need to do the same with a few of MSU's players. Dion Sims, Blake Treadwell and Tyler Hoover would be considered returning starters for MSU. . And you didn't miscount originally. Michigan State returns 4 starters on their OL. Fonoti, Jackson, McDonald and France are all returning starters.They lost one starter, we lost 3.
Convenient that our guys who never started a game last year, started a random game or two mid-year or got beat out half way through the year are considered returning starters but we don't consider similar situations for the opposing team.
Michigan State finished 2 games better in the conference season. A game and a half overall. They finished in the top 10.
We beat them last year....by your logic....Northwestern has an argument over us. You are calling scoreboard as proof that Nebraska is better than Michigan State. I'm willing to bet you wouldn't appreciate the same argument if one was making that argument in Northwestern's situation. Interesting how that works.
No one is saying we can't win the division. Hell, I think as of right now, I'd probably bet on us to win the division. But that has some Nebraska bias. Taking that away, you can't find much reason to put NU above Michigan State. Husker fan will consider someone like Sirles a returning starter. Your average college football fan wouldn't and if they did...then they'd consider a few extra guys from Michigan State as returning starters.
They have as many starters returning from a team that was better against the same competition last year.
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daddyact said...
Where in the hell did I say we were dominant?
Do you have any freaking idea what we're arguing about or did you just decide to stick in your worthless two cents?
Don't take one part of an argument and try to turn it into something else.
This is about whether or not MSU has more talent returning than Nebraska. That's all!
We have more talent returning as compared to a team we beat 24-3 last year. Nebraska has more coming back than the team we beat and which we're supposed to lose to this year. That proves to me that the Huskers are being overlooked by the media.
Keep the argument focused on the initial point. The only valid point anyone could make in MSU's favor, imo, is that we have to play in East Lansing. However, last year Nebraska was a better team than Michigan State, and the only argument I need is SCOREBOARD.
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nustudent said...
Rome did not finish the season as the starter. He started all of 2 games. Moore started the final 5.
You are being pretty leniant in our favor in what you consider a returning starter. If you are going to consider ARod, Rome and Sirles returning starters, we need to do the same with a few of MSU's players. Dion Sims, Blake Treadwell and Tyler Hoover would be considered returning starters for MSU. . And you didn't miscount originally. Michigan State returns 4 starters on their OL. Fonoti, Jackson, McDonald and France are all returning starters.They lost one starter, we lost 3.
Convenient that our guys who never started a game last year, started a random game or two mid-year or got beat out half way through the year are considered returning starters but we don't consider similar situations for the opposing team.
Michigan State finished 2 games better in the conference season. A game and a half overall. They finished in the top 10.
We beat them last year....by your logic....Northwestern has an argument over us. You are calling scoreboard as proof that Nebraska is better than Michigan State. I'm willing to bet you wouldn't appreciate the same argument if one was making that argument in Northwestern's situation. Interesting how that works.
No one is saying we can't win the division. Hell, I think as of right now, I'd probably bet on us to win the division. But that has some Nebraska bias. Taking that away, you can't find much reason to put NU above Michigan State. Husker fan will consider someone like Sirles a returning starter. Your average college football fan wouldn't and if they did...then they'd consider a few extra guys from Michigan State as returning starters.
They have as many starters returning from a team that was better against the same competition last year.
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nustudent said...
Rome did not finish the season as the starter. He started all of 2 games. Moore started the final 5.
You are being pretty leniant in our favor in what you consider a returning starter. If you are going to consider ARod, Rome and Sirles returning starters, we need to do the same with a few of MSU's players. Dion Sims, Blake Treadwell and Tyler Hoover would be considered returning starters for MSU. . And you didn't miscount originally. Michigan State returns 4 starters on their OL. Fonoti, Jackson, McDonald and France are all returning starters.They lost one starter, we lost 3.
Convenient that our guys who never started a game last year, started a random game or two mid-year or got beat out half way through the year are considered returning starters but we don't consider similar situations for the opposing team.
Michigan State finished 2 games better in the conference season. A game and a half overall. They finished in the top 10.
We beat them last year....by your logic....Northwestern has an argument over us. You are calling scoreboard as proof that Nebraska is better than Michigan State. I'm willing to bet you wouldn't appreciate the same argument if one was making that argument in Northwestern's situation. Interesting how that works.
No one is saying we can't win the division. Hell, I think as of right now, I'd probably bet on us to win the division. But that has some Nebraska bias. Taking that away, you can't find much reason to put NU above Michigan State. Husker fan will consider someone like Sirles a returning starter. Your average college football fan wouldn't and if they did...then they'd consider a few extra guys from Michigan State as returning starters.
They have as many starters returning from a team that was better against the same competition last year.
This post was edited by daddyact on 7/28/2012 at 4:17 AM
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daddyact said...
Northwestern was better - in that game.
Nebraska was better - in the MSU game.
Michigan State was better in the Michigan game, and the first Wisconsin game, barely.
Iowa was better, in the Michigan game.
Nebraska was better, in the Iowa game.
There was not that much difference between the top three teams in the Legends. Home field was a major advantage for each of those teams.
No, MSU does not have as many starters as Nebraska has returning. I don't care that other people don't consider Sirles a starter, but you and I both know that having been a starter two years ago is a decided advantage, especially when he ends up as the back-up at RT, while a returning starter (ARod) from LG is probably going to slip into the starting job.
Again,this is not about winning or losing the division. It's about an inaccurate observation which stated that MSU has more talent returning than Nebraska this year. That is not true, and the people who keep trying to make such an argument are being completely disingenuous.
and your point about Rome is stupid. He started two games. He is returning, thus he IS a returning starter.
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nustudent said...
But who was better in that those individual games isn't the issue. It was who was better overall. That was Michigan State and Michigan opposed to us.
That's fine then if you want to consider those guys starters
But then we need to be fair and do the same for Michigan State. Dion Sims started more games than Rome did last year. He needs to be considered a returning starter at tight end. Blake Treadwell was a starter before injury. Now that he's healthy he needs to be considered a returning starter. Tyler Hoover was a starter in 2010 before missing all of last year with an injury...he needs to be considered a returning starter as well.
Unless of course, you just want to skew the argument in Nebraska's favor
It's only an inaccurate observation if you want to change the criteria to favor Nebraska and not give MIchigan State the same benefit of the doubt on various players.
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daddyact said...
We weren't even discussing which was the better team last year. The discussion centers around the statement this statement: "…Michigan State finished ahead of Nebraska last year and…(has)… as much or MORE RETURNING this year."
Let's stay on this statement instead of bringing in arguments about whether or not either of us think MSU was better last year or whether going to the CCG automatically warrants them consideration asa division favorite.
You said it, and I clearly showed you that MSU loses SEVEN starters on offense, as well as a third WR and a second TE. All nine of these players (including the starting LT and LG) played extensively and were instrumental in the success of MSU's offense.
That means that the Spartans return FOUR offensive starters from last season; literally, three OL and a RB.
Nebraska lost one skill player (Kinnie), and three starting OL from last season, so without even taking players like Sirles into account, the Huskers return SEVEN offensive starters. I tend to think that players who have started and are returning are just as important, so I added both ARod and Sirles to my original count, making NINE players, not counting the fact that both JT and Marlowe started at some point last year.
Now, we can talk about the relative talents about these returning players, but generally speaking, it's much harder to replace seven starters than it is to replace three or four, so whether you like it or not, at least on offense, NEBRASKA RETURNS MORE than Michigan State.
As to defense, MSU lost two starting DL and a FS from last years starting line-up, so they return EIGHT starters.
Nebraska lost a LB, a CB, and a Safety that were starters. We also lost a DT, who was replaced by another Senior DT, and a back-up freshman DT, due to injury, in the last two games. We can count him, if you'd like. In my opinion, any player that has started two games and played extensively throughout the last half of the season should be considered a returning starter, but that's splitting hairs.
Nebraska actually does return four DL starters, two LB starters, one CB and one Safety, and that adds up to EIGHT in my book.
Again, we can discuss the relative merits of these players, but going back to your original statement, both teams RETURN THE SAME NUMBER OF STARTERS ON DEFENSE.
SEVEN/NINE offensive starters to FOUR actually means that Nebraska returns more on offense.
EIGHT defensive starters to EIGHT actually would mean that both defenses return exactly the same amount, so at least the part of your statement that says "as much" would be true, at least on defense.
However, no part of your statement that MSU returns MORE than Nebraska is in any way, shape, or form even close to accurate.
Once again, I'm not interested in turning this into another argument surrounding other issues. My initial replay concerned the quoted statement. You were completely inaccurate, so i wish you'd just admit that you were exaggerating for effect, and let it go so we can actually discuss the other incessant posts that have absolutely nothing to do with my point.
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Scooby said...
I think you can make the case that Msu has more talent than we do. I am not saying they do but u can make the case. Do we have someone on defense that is on the same level as gholston. No. Qb talent- nuff said Lb- Bo has mismanaged this spot bad so our talent( which some of it I question is young) O line- they return 4 starters and it isn't like we have any all Americans maybe 1 All conference. For the big 10 award for best defender we had no one on the watch list. Cuz they currently do not see any player that talented. Msu has been better than us for a few years. Our talent level is not great. Reminds Me of some of sOlich years. Msu may have better talent than us.
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daddyact said...
And here come the negative nellies, piling on and agreeing wholeheartedly that this program stinks and our coaching staff sucks.
There is nothing wrong with this coaching staff, and ironically, the last few versions of our coaching staff, although lacking in some areas, were still good enough to raise this woeful talent into two CCGs and a minimum of nine wins per season.
Yeah, it's a really scary staff. I'm just terrified we're only going to win nine games this year.
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nustudent said...
Once again, you continue so skew the numbers in our favor.
We lost 5 starters from offense. 3 OL, Kinnie and a FB. That means we have 6 returning starters. Michigan State has 4 returning starters on the OL. I named them, but you choose to ignore facts to bend the numbers your way. They also have a RB. That makes 5 returning offensive starters for Michigan State.
Defensively, we lost Dennard, David, Cassidy and Crick/Moore. The latter started 11 of our 13 games at DT. You can consider Rome a returning starter. I don't consider him one, but if you do that's fine. But then we need to consider Dion Sims a returning starter on offense for Michigan State. You have to have the same standards here. If one considers Chase Rome a returning starter because of his 2 starts...then a guy who has more starts than that would need to be considered one as well....unless of course..you are just picking a choosing who is a returning starter based on your argument.
With the lose of those 4 on defense...that means we return 7. 7 defense + 6 on offense equals 13 returning starters. Michigan State returns 8 on defense. You add that to what they have on offense returning and it equals 13. Which means they have AS MUCH OR MORE coming back.
Again...if you want to consider ARod, Sirles, Turner, Marlowe or Rome as a returning starter...that's okay.....but we need to apply the same standards for MIchigan State because they have players who started games as well that aren't being considered returning starters.
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Is Nebraska being overlooked?