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This was taken from TBB re: the final 247. I feel this is a need to read from JC.
247Sports will release its final Top247 for the Class of 2013 in the coming days and I wanted to take the time to point out some specifics in our philosophy for the final rankings.
1- We will have 32 five star prospects. There are 32 first round picks in the NFL Draft and because we project to the highest upside, that number makes sense to us.
2- The position representation within those 32 will fit with NFL Draft data during the past 3-5 years. For example, there will likely be more defensive ends, offensive tackles, defensive tackles, quarterbacks and cornerbacks than safeties, centers, guards, inside linebackers and other spots. I will say that some outside linebackers that are elite pass rusher types and great athletes will be valued like defensive ends. This is due to the 3-4 defenses, etc.
3- We are not concerned with where we had a prospect ranked previously. After the final Top247 is released, there is no turning back. Our goal is to get it right in the end. If a prospect has to go from three stars to No. 2 in the country, hey we missed it up until this point.
4- We are not concerned with where any other recruiting media outlet has a prospect ranked, what they reported from an event, what their stance is on a player, who they like, etc. In football evaluation, you are going to have differences of opinion. Talk to 10 different pro scouts and 10 different college coaches and they are going to say different things. We respect where other networks have prospects ranked, which is why we have the 247Composite. Keep in mind that 247Composite rankings and ratings are what we use exclusively to calculate our team rankings formula.
5- We understand that fans are fans and you all want your commits to be ranked high. We also understand you have opinions about players and want you to express it. That being said, we would not be doing our jobs if we pandered to you if you whine, post things like “what a joke”, act like we are being bullies to a high school kid, etc. It’s our job to do this and you wouldn’t have very much fun here if we didn’t have rankings. That being said, we appreciate that what we do stirs so much passion.
Thanks! One of our guys has the flu, so we are trying to nail down the day of the release.
Feed me to the wolves, and I will return leader of the pack. #FreeDA
what a joke!
Well, that sure will lead to mostly busts for the 5-star guys picked. How many really believe that a kid picked out of H.S. as a 5-star will ever have much of a chance to be an NFL 1st round pick? 10% would be about as many as I could envision. Oh well, to each his own; just looks like you put a lot of pressure on yourself to make use of that as a baseline.
I have no problem with them marching to their own drum, that is perfectly acceptable. But then to reverse that thinking to use the composite for team rankings seems to be somewhat ironic.
This post was edited by Zonie87 15 months ago
...It ain't what they call you, it's what you answer to.
W. C. Fields
I read it as 32 is the number of top players with reference to the draft, not necessarily guys who will be selected in the first round?
Did I make any sense just now?!
Ya better NebrASKa somebody!!!
Thats the way I read it as well.
I don't know how to read it other than they way it was presented... "We will have 32 five star prospects. There are 32 first round picks in the NFL Draft and because we project to the highest upside, that number makes sense to us." I mean what expectation level are they creating, and on what basis?
This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by Zonie87 15 months ago
Kevin? Need some interpretation in here......
I think they just are saying they have a set number of 5 Star guys. They set this number based upon the number of teams in the NFL draft. I suppose you could say it adds pressure but I would think any 5 star ranking does this anyways. They have a static top 247 not sure this really changes much.
The only thing I don't like is that they project players higher based on position. The draft is fluid and changes year to year. No way to project 3,4,5 years down the road. That comparison is the only thing that hurts this process in my mind.
That is their goal.
Doesn't mean they will ever achieve it, but they are looking to base their rankings for college football recruits based upon the higher level of the NFL.
Sounds like a credible task and vision to me.
Here is the 2008 Top 30 from RIvals (the 5 stars they ranked):
1. Terrelle Pryor: We know the story. Playing in the NFL for the Raiders.
2. DaQuan Bowers: 2nd round draft pick.
3. Mike Adams: 2nd round draft pick.
4. Julio Jones: 1st round draft pick.
5. Patrick Johnson: Changed his name to Patrick Peterson 1st round draft pick
6. Darrell Scott: UFA, no longer in the NFL
7. Marcus Fortson: Patriots Practice Squad
8. Baker Steinkuhler: SR at Nebraska
9. Julio Jones: 1st round draft pick
10. Will Hill: UFA NY Giants
11. Matt Kalil: 1st Round draft pick
12. Mike Brewster: UFA - Jacksonville Jaguars
13. RJ Washington: SR Oklahoma
14. Blaine Gabbert - 1st Round pick
15. Tyron Smith - 1st Round pick
16. Nigel Bradham - 4th round pick
17. Omar Hunter: SR FL
18. Matt Patchan: SR FL
19. Jermie Calhoun: SR Oklahoma
20. Kyle Rudolph - 2nd round
21. Devier Posey - 3rd round
22. DeAndre Brown - Injured, career over
23. Arthur Brown - SR K-State
24. Richard Samuel - SR Georgia
25. Dayne Crist - SR Kansas
26. Jonathan Baldwin - 1st round pick
27. Michael Floyd - 1st round pick
28. Burton Scott - AL (whereabouts unknown)
29. Stephen Good - SR OK
30. Tyler Love - AL (whereabouts unknown)
Looks like a lot of 'hits' to me. 16 guys currently in the NFL. 12 actually drafted. 7 first rounders and 9 guys stories yet to be told.
247, IMO, will be taking these rankings to a whole new level.
Good work on this, Skerz.
Didn't take much more than about 20 minutes.
You gotta love the internet. The information available at the nimbleness of your fingers and the click of a mouse is amazing.
I think all they are saying is that, as of right now, these 32 guys are most likely to be drafted in the first round 3 to 4 years down the line. I don't think they have an delusions that it will work out that way, but I would guess a little more than 10% success rate. Maybe 25%? A lot can change with a player in that time at this stage of life; i.e. there is no way to truly gauge dedication, character, work ethic, mesh of player to position coach/head coach at the school he chooses, continued physical development, affect of weight/muscle gain through weight programs, etc. The development, or lack thereof, of players is one of the really interesting things that draws me to CFB. Sometimes its hard to miss. Look at Clowny a few years back, he has fulfilled that potential for the most part and one of the commentators in the N game was commenting that he could be the #1 pick. Could be. Then there is that running back that Georgia kicked off its team last year and, as of right now, looks like he may never develop any further and might not ever play in the NFL. This is nothing more than an assessment of the kids in the moment, and not necessarily a prediction, IMO.
Good stuff Skerz. Major UV for the effort. The only real issue I have with this is rating college prospects based on projected NFL draft-ability projected down the road. The games are just worlds apart. Being drafted in the NFL, or not, just doesn't correlate to how good of a CFB player you are. As an example, look at Braxton Miller. Pundits are promoting him as a strong Heisman candidate for next year, and I can see that. It would be hard to argue that he won't be one of the top 10 effective/influential/successful/best (choose the adjective of your choice) CFB players next year barring injury. But I don't think the NFl will care for him any more than it did Terrell Pryor. Probably won't even be interested in playing him at QB, and I would doubt he would be drafted in the first round, or even the second, despite that "top ten CFB ranking."
Agree with your point, here.
I think if the supposition was presented that at this early point early in their football experience this list of 32 appear to have a good potential to make it to the NFL draft it would put less of an onus on these young men to be placed under the spotlight of extremely high expectations. By making an inference related to the 32 first round picks, I believe that unfairly casts these young men into the limelight of media and fan attention before even entering college. As is so common today, perception turns out to be reality, right or wrong.
IMO, any ranking of incoming college football players should be based on their perceived ability to succeed at the college level.
Analyzing their NFL stock should come after they've played the college game a while.
Braxton Miller was a 5* in 247's rankings. Thus I do believe that they make some exceptions to the rule.
Agree. I think it behooves everyone who loves this game to find ways to put less pressure on these tender young men at a really susceptible point in their lives.
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